Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
By Noah Zon
August 2016
POLICY BRIEF
1Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
POLICY BRIEF
Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
On basic income, we need to start with the basics
In some ways, the diverse support for basic income guarantees defies fundamental laws of political gravity. The idea that we should simply guarantee every person some minimum amount of money to meet their needs has vocal supporters from across the political spectrum; it seems to be the rare common ground for people who almost never agree on anything. This potential for unlikely alliances is turning heads and making universal basic income a surprisingly popular global topic. Canada is in the heart of this emerging international conversation with the Ontario government in the midst of developing a basic income pilot program1 and Quebec exploring its options.2
As a policy idea, a universal basic income is not new. The idea was popular in the 1960s and 70s, backed by figures ranging from Martin Luther King Jr.3 to Richard Nixon.4 Canada famously ran a pilot project called MINCOME in Manitoba in the 1970s, and there were also a handful of other small, similar experiments in the U.S. during this period. After a long stretch waiting in the wings, the idea of a universal basic income has returned to centre stage. However, the shared enthusiasm can be misleading. When you scratch the surface, you find very quickly that people are talking about very different things with different merits.
At one end of the spectrum, some envision a transformation of our current social safety net, replacing core components (such as social housing) by giving people cash transfers instead.5 At the other end of the spectrum,
1 Benzie, Robert. Wynne touts basic-income pilot project to help poor. 17 March 2016. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/17/wynne-touts-basic-income-pilot-project-to-help-poor.html
2 Couillard, Philippe. Allocution du premier ministre du Québec, Philippe Couillard, à loccasion de la cérémonie de prestation de serment de membres du Conseil des ministers. 28 January 2016. Government of Quebec. http:// www.premier-ministre.gouv.qc.ca/actualites/allocutions/details.asp?idAllocutions=906
3 Caffin, Brenton and Johar, Indy. Basic income: a solution to which challenge? 6 May 2016. Nesta. http://www.nesta.org.uk/blog/basic-income-solution-which-challenge
4 Dwyer, Paula. A Basic Income Should be the Next Big Thing. 2 May 2016. Bloomberg View. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-02/a-basic-income-should-be-the-next-big-thing
5 A Libertarian Case for Basic Income (radio segment). 20 March 2016. The 180 with Jim Brown on CBC Radio. http://www.cbc.ca/radio/the180/a-sovereigntist-defends-english-a-case-for-guaranteed-minimum-income- and-more-alberta-road-trip-1.3496597/a-libertarian-case-for-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-1.3496657
2Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
some are positioning basic income as an opportunity to significantly augment the current safety net with new investment.6 So before we can talk about whether basic income is the right solution, we need to start with the basics what exactly are we are talking about?
Thats a conversation worth having. There are some powerful goals behind the case for basic income including:
Guaranteeing a minimum income that allows people to maintain a decent standard of living regardless of their circumstances;7
Strengthening our social safety net by addressing its gaps and weaknesses; and
Making sure that as our economy changes and creates new opportunities, those who are displaced do not get left behind.
These goals are important, but they are not unique to basic income. We have a number of policies and programs in place at all levels of government today that are designed to ensure a decent standard of living and opportunity for all including guaranteed incomes for children and for seniors. Some make important contributions in bringing us closer to those goals, others underperform.
This policy brief looks to make sense of the competing visions of basic income, what proposed solutions are on the table, how much they would cost and how those proposals differ from what we have today. To look at the merits of universal basic income, we need to clarify which problems we are trying to solve, and ask not only whether a universal basic income would bring us closer to these goals, but whether it would be the best way to get there.
6 Hughes, Chris. The Case for Cash for All. 17 May 2016. Medium. https://medium.com/@chrishughes/the- case-for-cash-for-all-612db8ab7e94#.sspidi8j1
7 See the work of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation on Minimum Income Standards. https://www.jrf.org.uk/ income-benefits/minimum-income-standards
3Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
What is basic income, anyway?
It depends who you ask. Basic income is an idea that has many names (including universal basic income, basic income guarantee, guaranteed annual income or guaranteed minimum income) and many definitions. The common theme of each of these definitions involves having the government transfer money to individuals or households without strings attached about how it is used or how people spend their time. The basic idea is that rather than the current suite of sometimes complex programs with different rules to get support if you need it (e.g., social assistance, subsidized housing, rebates for energy costs), the government would simply provide regular cash transfers to people, letting them direct that money towards their needs. Beyond that general idea, there are some fundamental differences between different proposals for a basic income.8
The simplest version of the idea is to give unconditional cash transfers to every person (or at least, every adult) in the province or country. Every person would receive the same amount regardless of their income, employment status, or need. This could be as simple as $10,000 in the hands of every Canadian. While this is a very simplistic approach, this universal idea is the most commonly raised in popular discussions, and is being floated by a range of proponents.9 The amount of this benefit varies between proposals but is usually fairly modest sometimes set at the poverty line, often well below.
For example, in the state of Alaska, residents get an annual dividend payment from their states oil and gas revenues, generally in the range of C$1,000-2,000 per person.10 The Finnish government is currently considering a pilot that would provide 550 per month (about C$810) to working age adults at first, increasing to 800 per month (about C$1,180) to replace many social services. 11 To put that in perspective, that would bring a person without any additional income up to about 80 per cent of the Finnish poverty line.
8 Flowers, Andrew. What Would Happen If We Just Gave People Money? 25 April 2016. FiveThirtyEight. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/universal-basic-income/
9 See for example: Andressen, Erin. To end poverty, give everyone in Canada $20,000 a year. But are you willing to trust the poor? 19 November 2010. The Globe and Mail. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ to-end-poverty-guarantee-everyone-in-canada-20000-a-year-but-are-you-willing-to-trust-the-poor/article560885/; Painter, Anthony. In Support of a Universal Basic Income Introducing the RSA Basic Income Model. 16 December 2015. The RSA. https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2015/12/in-sup- port-of-a-universal-basic-income–introducing-the-rsa-basic-income-model
10 McFarland, Allen. Alaska residents are paid a unique yearly dividend from the states permanent fund. 1 May 2015. Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21052
11 Bershidsky, Leonid. Finns May Get Paid For Being Finns. 3 November 2015. Bloomberg View. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-11-03/finns-may-get-paid-for-being-finns
4Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
The other main type of basic income the one that was the subject of a few experiments in the 1960s and 1970s is intended to top up a persons income.12 This is sometimes called a negative income tax, and works like refundable tax credits such as the GST/HST credit, where people with very low income can essentially receive a tax refund higher than the taxes they owe, leaving them overall with a boost to their incomes. Under this kind of basic income, as other income grows, the basic income guarantee is phased out until the top-up reaches zero, and people start to pay taxes on their income.
As basic income guarantees capture the publics and policymakers attention, the distinction between these approaches has remained blurry. So have some important questions such as whether these guarantees would cover the needs of seniors and children as well as adults, and even whether a basic income is intended to replace or complement existing programs. To have a productive conversation about which (if any) version of basic income offers promise, we need to be clear about what is being proposed.
12 Segal, Hugh. Scrapping Welfare: The case for guaranteeing all Canadians an income above the poverty line. December 2012. Literary Review of Canada. http://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2012/12/scrapping-welfare/
5Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
How do basic income proposals differ from what we have today?
Many proposals around basic income treat it as something unfamiliar. For example, Voxs Ezra Klein called it the kind of radical policy that asks whether we actually need to live in this world, or whether there are better worlds on offer.13 This isnt true. We have a long experience with guaranteed incomes or very similar policies all over the world, and in particular here in Canada.14
In Canada today we have two sets of programs that look quite a bit like guaranteed incomes for those who we expect to be outside the workforce seniors and children.
The Old Age Security (OAS) program for seniors has been around in basically the same form for nearly a century, providing a guaranteed income to seniors regardless of their work history. The OAS currently provides $6,880 per year for those receiving the maximum amount.
If you dont have much income from other sources like pensions (Canada Pension Plan [CPP] or private), work or investments, then you can get more from the federal government (the Guaranteed Income Supplement [GIS], currently worth up to $10,277 per year) and from provinces. In Ontario,
13 Klein, Ezra. A universal basic income only makes sense if Americans change how they think about work. 1 June 2016. Vox. http://www.vox.com/2016/6/1/11827024/universal-basic-income
14 Battle, Ken. Guaranteed income or Guaranteed Incomes? September 2015. Caledon Institute of Social Policy. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/1078ENG.pdf
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6Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
this combines for a guaranteed annual income of about $18,200 for single seniors and about $14,100 per person for couples.15 These programs have both residency requirements and clawbacks on support as other income increases, but this looks pretty close to the archetype of a basic income guarantee, combining the universal grant with an income top-up system for those with very low incomes.
Canada also provides guaranteed incomes in the form of child benefits. Like Old Age Security, these benefits go back nearly a century to mothers allowances.16 For the last decade, our basic income guarantee for children included a combination of a universal grant with a top-up for those with low incomes. The Universal Child Care Benefit provided $1,200 per year for each child in Canada under age six, and the National Child Benefit Supplement (along with provincial child benefits) provided targeted top- ups for low-income families. The largest program was the income-tested basic Child Tax Benefit, which served 9 in 10 families. As of July 2016, we have shifted to a different design of a basic income guarantee with the new Canada Child Benefit, which rolls different benefits and credits together into a single, larger basic income guarantee that delivers its largest benefit to lower-income families and phases out gradually as income increases.
15 Government of Ontario. Guaranteed Annual Income System benefit rates. Update July 1, 2016. https://www. ontario.ca/data/guaranteed-annual-income-system-benefit-rates?_ga=1.261991181.1480671194.1463682162
16 Battle, Ken. Child Benefits in Canada: Politics versus Policy. June 2015. Renewing Canadas Social Architec- ture. http://social-architecture.ca/wp-content/uploads/ChildBenefitsInCanada.pdf
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7Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
The new Canada Child Benefit guarantees a minimum income for all but wealthy families with children though that minimum depends on the size of the family and age of the children. For a family with two children under 6 in Ontario, they are guaranteed a minimum income of at least $15,512 (when combined with the Ontario Child Benefit). The new program is designed so that families will not end up worse off by losing benefits as they earn other income, which reduces the risk of perverse welfare wall effects that can end up punishing people for taking steps to improve their lives (like working more).
We also see the idea of a guaranteed minimum income in the tax system, though in a smaller way. One way that this concept is applied is through the basic personal amount the idea that a certain amount of income should not be taxable because we should not take away from a minimum level of income needed to purchase necessities. In 2015, that amount shielded from tax was $11,327 federally and $9,863 in Ontario provincial income tax. Thats worth a combined $2,200 annually in tax saved for any Ontarian with at least that much income.
This is a basic income structured as a non-refundable tax credit meaning you can only use it to deduct from taxes owing. Ironically, for a guaranteed minimum income policy, this means that someone with no taxable income gets no financial support from the basic personal amount, and the highest- earning Canadians get the full value. We invest quite a bit today in this poorly targeted basic income; the estimated cost of the basic personal amount was $33.8 billion federally in 2015, with additional costs to each
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8Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
province ($4.3 billion in Ontario).17
In addition to these basic incomes, we have a whole suite of income support and income security programs that are meant to guarantee minimum levels of income but are conditional in different ways that generally dont meet definitions of guaranteed annual incomes. For example, social assistance programs provide a basic level of support for people who dont have other sources of income or resources. Employment Insurance and disability insurance programs such as Ontarios Workplace Safety Insurance Board and CPP-Disability provide income replacement for people who contribute to the program over their careers if they lose their jobs or are unable to work because of disability. The Working Income Tax Benefit acts to top up peoples income, but only for people who work.
Some parts of this suite of basic income guarantees work relatively well, and some fall disappointingly short. Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement have played a critical role in reducing poverty for seniors.18 The Canada Child Benefit is projected to move hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty in its first year.19 However when you look at our income security system as a whole, we clearly have room for improvement. People with severe disabilities can get vastly different levels of support depending on how and when they acquired their disabilities. Social assistance provides support far below what it takes to afford necessities, and subjects people in need to a web of requirements that often prevent them from making lasting moves out of poverty, and doesnt treat recipients with dignity. The question is whether we would be better off replacing most or all of these different programs with a new universal basic income, or if it would be better to reform and add to the existing system so that they work together to meet minimum income standards.
17 Figures from Department of Finance Canada. Report on Federal Tax Expenditures Concepts, Estimates and Evaluations 2016. March 2016. https://www.fin.gc.ca/taxexp-depfisc/2016/taxexp1604-eng.asp#Cred- it-for-the-Basic-Personal-Amount; and Ontario Ministry of Finance. Transparency in Taxation, 2015. 26 November 2015. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/fallstatement/2015/transparency.html
18 Conference Board of Canada. Elderly Poverty. How Canada Performs. http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/ details/society/elderly-poverty.aspx
19 Monsebraaten, Laurie. Child benefit to pull record number of kids out of poverty, Minister says. 15 June 2016. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/06/15/child-benefit-to-pull-record-number-of-kids- out-of-poverty-minister-says.html
9Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
What problem are we trying to solve?
In debates around new basic income proposals, its not only often unclear just what is being proposed, there is also a lack of consensus about exactly what problem we are trying to solve. Leaving aside those motivated by any opportunity to shrink the size of government and replace it with the market, people have raised basic income as a response to a range of different problems. As Samuel Hammond argues in Foreign Policy, some of those rationales are contradictory on their face.20 Its worth understanding each of these concerns to understand whether a basic income is the best way to respond to them.
Problem: Too many people cannot maintain a decent standard of living
One of the main arguments for basic income is to respond to the
problem of people not having enough money to meet their needs
in other words, addressing poverty. But the shortfall that people face
in having enough to make ends meet looks different depending on
who we are talking about. For people who are working and facing
stagnating wages that leave them struggling to make ends meet, a
modest amount of support to augment their incomes might bridge
that gap.21 For people who rely on inadequate income support
systems, it would take a much more significant boost to meet this
goal.22 Social assistance programs typically leave people well short of
the poverty line.23
Basic income could theoretically send people enough money to bring
them out of poverty.24 The question is whether a single universal
program is the best way to do that. If basic income were to come at
the expense of existing programs, this problem could be worse for
many low-income people.
20 Hammond, Samuel. When the Welfare State met the Flat Tax. 16 June 2016. Foreign Policy. http://foreignpoli- cy.com/2016/06/16/when-the-welfare-state-met-the-flat-tax/
21 Hughes, 2016.
22 Sas, Jonathan. Progressives and the Guaranteed Income Debate. 14 March 2016. The Broadbent Blog. (Broad- bent Institute). http://www.broadbentinstitute.ca/jonathansas/progressives_guaranteed_income_debate
23 Tiessen, Kaylie. Ontarios Social Assistance Poverty Gap. 9 May 2016. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/ontarios-social-assistance-poverty-gap
24 Stern, Andy. Moving towards a universal basic income. 12 April 2016. Jobs and Development Blog. World Bank http://blogs.worldbank.org/jobs/moving-towards-universal-basic-income
10Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
Problem: The social safety net is tangled and filled with holes
For some, the problem to be solved by universal basic income
policies is that our social safety net is riddled with complications
that allow some people to slip through while trapping others in
poverty with welfare wall effects.25 Our approach to social policy
reflects a collection of clumsy but temporarily effective responses
to problems as they arise, each justifiable in their own context, but
taken together, combine for the kind of gerry-rigged, opaque and
complicated approach that Steven Teles calls a kludgeocracy.26
Basic income is a chance to replace the red tape27 and stigma28 with
a simpler approach that can support people in a way that respects
their dignity and agency. The related libertarian version of this
problem is that our current system sees government play too large a
role in the economy and peoples lives, and that we would be better
off giving that money directly to individuals to meet their needs
in the market, saving money on administration of programs in the
process, money that could be redirected to people in need.29
Replacing a patchwork of responses to particular needs with a
universal income approach would also respond to the gaps that have
emerged as our safety net has failed to keep pace with economic and
social transformations.30
25 Torjman, Sherri and Battle, Ken. Breaking Down the Welfare Wall. July 1993. Caledon Institute of Social Policy. http://www.caledoninst.org/Publications/PDF/488ENG.pdf
26 Teles, Steven. Kludgeocracy: The American Way of Policy. 10 December 2012. New America Foundation. https://www.newamerica.org/economic-growth/policy-papers/kludgeocracy-the-american-way-of-policy/
27 Zon, Noah. Less red tape for business, why not people? June 2016. Maytree. http://maytree.com/poli- cy-and-insights/opinion/less-red-tape-for-business-why-not-people.html
28 Calnitsky, David. Basic income: social assistance without the stigma. 30 May 2016. Toronto Star. https://www. thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/05/30/basic-income-social-assistance-without-the-stigma.html
29 Zwolinsky, Matt. The Pragmatic Libertarian Case for a Basic Income Guarantee. 4 August 2014. Cato Un- bound. http://www.cato-unbound.org/2014/08/04/matt-zwolinski/pragmatic-libertarian-case-basic-income-guar- antee
30 Granofsky, Thomas, Corak, Miles, Johal, Sunil and Zon, Noah. Renewing Canadas Social Architecture. May 2015. Mowat Centre. http://social-architecture.ca/
11Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
Rather than creating a set of targeted programs, the flexibility of
an all-purpose universal basic income would allow it to respond to
challenges like the financial burden of unpaid caregiving31 or the
high costs of child care32 that more and more families need to rely
on.
The overall approach of a basic income could definitely improve on
the complicated set of programs we have today. However, not all of
the problems that we try to address through the social safety net can
be easily addressed by providing everyone with a little more money.
Would a basic income account for peoples different needs, including
those such as drug coverage, that are not well-served by the market?
The more adjustments that we make for these complexities, the
more a basic income starts to look like our current system, for better
or for worse.
31 Hylmar, Stephanie. A Profile of Family Caregivers in Ontario. 2016. The Change Foundation. http://www. changefoundation.ca/profile-of-family-caregivers-announcement/
32 Johal, Sunil and Granofsky, Thomas. Growing Pains: Childcare in Canada. June 2015. Mowat Centre. http:// social-architecture.ca/growing-pains-childcare-in-canada/
12Policy brief: Would a universal basic income reduce poverty?
Problem: The risk of weak labour markets
A combination of economists and technologists see basic income
as a way to respond to an expected wave of automation enabled
by robotics and artificial intelligence.33 In other words, the robots are coming for our jobs. A recent report from the Brookfield
Institute found that 42 per cent of Canadian jobs are at high risk
of automation just taking into account existing technology.34 This problem is regularly cited by advocates who say that we need basic
income policies to compensate for the risk that these jobs would not
be replaced by a new set of emerging jobs in industries that we are
not yet aware of.35 In this scenario, automation allows us to continue to create a great deal of wealth and value as a society, while needing
fewer workers to do so. In this scenario, basic income policies are
how we make sure everyone can have a decent standard of living,
even if it is harder to achieve that through employment.
Others point to the challenges today in the quality and quantity
of full-time employment. A report from Policy Horizons Canada
(a federal government think tank) projects that virtual work and
freelancing are likely to become a feature of most Canadians work
lives, bringing both flexibility and instability.36 Basic income is seen as a way to buffer against the precarity of work, including both
the low level and insecurity of income from part-time and contract
employment.37
33 Matthews, Dylan. Some residents of Oakland are about to get a basic income. 1 June 2016. Vox. http://www. vox.com/2016/1/28/10860830/y-combinator-basic-income
34 Lamb, Creig. The Talented Mr. Robot. 14 June 2016. Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneur- ship. http://brookfieldinstitute.ca/research-analysis/automation/
35 See for example: Bolton, Doug. Basic income may be needed to combat robot-induced unemployment, leading AI expert says. 19 February 2016. The Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/ news/basic-income-artificial-intelligence-ai-robots-automation-moshe-vardi-a6884086.html ; Freedman, David. Basic Income: A sellout of the American Dream. 13 June 2016. MIT Technology Review. https://www.tech- nologyreview.com/s/601499/basic-income-a-sellout-of-the-american-dream/ ; Fingas, Jon. Y Combinator basic income makes up for jobs lost in tech. 1 June 2016. Engadget. https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/01/y-combi- nator-basic-income-experiment/ ; Stern, Andy. The Case for Unions to Support a Universal Basic Income. 27 June 2016. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/unions-and-ubi/488951/
36 Policy Horizons Canada. Canada and the Changing Nature of Work. May 2016. http://horizons.gc.ca/eng/ content/canada-and-changing-nature-work
37 Bueckert,
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